Export forecasting for 2026 requires looking beyond aggregate numbers to understand the sector-specific dynamics that will drive Australia and New Zealand’s trade performance in the year ahead.

Australian iron ore exports are projected to remain relatively stable in volume terms at around 880-900 million tonnes, with price assumptions creating most of the revenue uncertainty. The consensus forecast puts iron ore at USD 105-110 per tonne average for 2026, which would represent a modest decline from 2025 levels but nothing catastrophic. Chinese steel production is expected to contract slightly, but ongoing infrastructure spending should maintain reasonable demand.

LNG exports from Australia face a more complex picture. Volume growth will be minimal as major expansion projects have already ramped up, but pricing will depend heavily on Northern Hemisphere winter conditions and European gas market dynamics. Current forward curves suggest prices in the USD 12-14 per mmBtu range for 2026, which would support healthy export revenues even with flat volumes.

Australian coal exports are expected to decline gradually in volume terms as global decarbonisation efforts continue, but thermal coal prices may remain elevated due to supply constraints in other producing regions. Metallurgical coal faces better long-term prospects given its role in steel production, with exports projected to grow 2-3% in 2026.

New Zealand’s dairy export outlook for 2026 centres on Chinese demand patterns and global supply conditions. Fonterra’s forecast suggests milk production will increase modestly, perhaps 2%, while prices are expected to remain relatively stable. The shift toward higher-value products continues, with whole milk powder representing a declining share of total exports while cheese and infant formula grow.

Meat exports from both countries face different dynamics by protein type. Australian beef exports are projected to grow 4% in volume terms as the cattle cycle moves through its rebuilding phase. However, prices may soften as global supply increases. New Zealand lamb exports are forecast to remain relatively flat in volume, with the industry focused on premium market positioning rather than volume growth.

Services exports represent an increasingly important category for both countries, though they often get less attention than goods exports. Australian education exports are forecast to grow 8% in 2026 as international student numbers continue recovering. New Zealand’s education exports should grow at a similar rate, though from a smaller base.

Tourism exports are expected to show solid growth for both countries. Australia is projected to reach 95% of pre-pandemic international visitor numbers by end-2026, with visitors from China and India showing particularly strong growth. New Zealand may exceed pre-pandemic visitor numbers in 2026, driven by strong demand from Australia, the United States, and European markets.

Digital services exports are harder to forecast precisely but appear poised for continued strong growth. Australian software and IT services exports are projected to grow 12-15% in 2026, driven by increased demand for cloud services, cybersecurity, and business process automation. New Zealand’s digital exports may grow even faster, perhaps 15-18%, though from a smaller base.

Wine exports from both countries face headwinds in 2026. Australian wine exports to China remain constrained by trade restrictions, forcing continued reorientation toward other markets. New Zealand wine exports are expected to grow modestly in value terms, perhaps 3-4%, with premium wines to the United States and United Kingdom driving growth.

Horticultural exports from New Zealand should see reasonable growth in 2026. Kiwifruit exports are forecast to increase 6% in volume as new plantings mature, while avocado exports may jump 15% as production expands. Australian horticultural exports face more variable conditions depending on category, with citrus and table grapes expected to perform well.

Mineral sands and specialty minerals exports from Australia are projected to grow as demand for critical minerals continues increasing. Lithium exports in particular are expected to see volume growth, though prices have declined significantly from peak levels and may not recover strongly in 2026.

Looking at market-specific projections, China remains the dominant export market for both countries despite recent tensions. Australian exports to China are forecast to grow 3-4% in value terms in 2026, while New Zealand exports to China may grow 5-6%. The difference reflects New Zealand’s less conflicted trade relationship and continued strength in dairy demand.

Exports to India are expected to grow strongly from both countries. Australian exports to India, particularly coal and LNG, are projected to increase 8-10% in 2026. New Zealand’s exports to India are forecast to grow even faster, perhaps 12-14%, though from a much smaller base. The India relationship is increasingly important for both countries’ export diversification strategies.

United States market dynamics vary by product category. Australian beef exports to the US should grow as the US cattle cycle constrains domestic supply. New Zealand’s exports to the US, concentrated in dairy and wine, are expected to see modest growth of 4-5%.

Southeast Asian markets present significant growth opportunities for both countries in 2026. Australian exports to ASEAN are forecast to grow 7-8%, driven by refined petroleum products, machinery, and professional services. New Zealand’s ASEAN exports may increase 9-10%, with dairy and meat products leading the growth.

One risk factor across multiple categories is the potential for protectionist measures in key export markets. While no major new trade barriers are currently expected in 2026, the global political environment suggests this risk remains elevated. Both countries are working to diversify export markets partly to mitigate this concentration risk.

The overall picture for 2026 export performance is moderately positive for both countries, though nothing spectacular. Australia’s total exports are forecast to grow 4-5% in value terms, while New Zealand’s may increase 5-6%. These growth rates would represent reasonable but not exceptional performance, consistent with the broader economic outlook for both countries.