Tourism operators across Australia and New Zealand are heading into the December-February summer season with cautious optimism, driven primarily by the trans-Tasman travel segment performing well above expectations.

Australian arrivals to New Zealand for the December-January period are tracking to reach approximately 420,000 visitors, which would represent 105% of the comparable pre-pandemic period. This isn’t just recovery—it’s exceeding previous benchmarks. The strength is concentrated in the traditional holiday regions: Queenstown, Bay of Islands, and the Coromandel Peninsula are all reporting strong advance bookings.

New Zealand visitors to Australia are projected to reach around 580,000 for the same two-month period, representing about 98% of pre-pandemic levels. While this trails the New Zealand-bound traffic slightly, it’s still a strong result. Queensland and New South Wales coastal regions are the primary beneficiaries, with the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, and northern NSW seeing particularly robust booking patterns.

What’s driving the trans-Tasman strength appears to be a combination of factors. The relative currency movements favour Australian visitors to New Zealand, with the NZD weakness making it a value destination. Direct flight capacity has recovered to roughly 95% of pre-pandemic levels, making travel convenient. And perhaps most importantly, consumers in both countries view a trans-Tasman holiday as a safer, closer-to-home option compared to long-haul alternatives.

Domestic tourism within Australia presents a more mixed picture. Capital city hotels are reporting relatively soft bookings for the summer period, with occupancy rates in Sydney and Melbourne tracking 5-8% below December 2024. However, regional destinations are performing better. The NSW South Coast, Tasmania, and Margaret River region in WA are all reporting solid bookings.

New Zealand domestic tourism is similarly variable by region. Auckland and Wellington hotels face soft conditions, while Queenstown, Wanaka, and the Coromandel report strong domestic bookings. The pattern suggests Kiwis are willing to holiday domestically but are prioritising traditional resort destinations rather than city breaks.

International visitors from beyond Australasia are also contributing to the summer season optimism. Australian inbound visitors from the United States are projected to reach 185,000 for December-January, up 12% on the same period in 2024. Chinese visitors to Australia should reach around 210,000, representing about 70% recovery to pre-pandemic levels but showing steady improvement.

New Zealand’s international visitor profile for the summer shows strong growth from several markets. United States visitors are forecast at 95,000 for the peak summer months, up 15% year-on-year. UK visitors should reach around 80,000, representing near-complete recovery. German and French visitors are both tracking above pre-pandemic levels, suggesting European interest in New Zealand remains robust.

The cruise sector provides a significant boost to summer tourism in both countries. Australia will host approximately 140 cruise ship visits during December-February, with Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane the key ports. Each ship arrival typically generates $1.5-2.5 million in direct economic impact through passenger and crew spending.

New Zealand’s cruise season is similarly strong, with around 180 port calls expected over the summer months. Auckland, Bay of Islands, and Christchurch (via Akaroa) are the major beneficiaries. The per-visitor spending from cruise passengers is lower than stopover tourists, but the volume creates meaningful economic impact for port communities.

Average daily rates for accommodation are holding up reasonably well despite mixed demand conditions. Australian hotels in key leisure markets are maintaining rates within 2-3% of 2024 levels, suggesting pricing power hasn’t completely evaporated. New Zealand accommodation providers are seeing similar rate stability, though promotional activity has increased.

The short-term rental market continues evolving in ways that affect traditional hotels. Airbnb and similar platforms are reporting strong summer bookings in both countries, particularly for larger properties that can accommodate groups or families. This segment appears to be taking share in leisure markets while hotels maintain strength in business travel and urban locations.

Tourism spending per visitor is showing interesting trends. Australian visitors to New Zealand are spending approximately 8% more per trip than in 2024, driven by higher accommodation costs and increased spending on activities and experiences. New Zealand visitors to Australia are spending about 5% more per trip, a more modest increase that reflects the less favourable currency movement from their perspective.

The adventure tourism segment in New Zealand is reporting exceptional advance bookings for the summer. Activities like bungy jumping, skydiving, and jet boating are all tracking ahead of last summer. This suggests visitors are seeking experience-based tourism rather than just passive sightseeing, a trend that’s been building for several years.

Australian experience-based tourism is also performing well. Reef tours in Queensland, wine region experiences in South Australia and Victoria, and food tours in Tasmania are all reporting strong bookings. The shift toward experiences over material goods seems to be holding even as consumers become more price-conscious in other areas.

Business events and conferences are contributing less to summer tourism than in previous years. Several large conferences scheduled for January-February were either downsized or shifted to later in 2026, reflecting the general caution in business spending. This creates a headwind for major city hotels that typically rely on the business events segment.

Looking at transport infrastructure, aviation capacity is adequate to meet demand but not overabundant. Load factors on key trans-Tasman routes are running at 83-85%, which represents healthy demand without the kind of overcrowding that creates poor passenger experiences. Domestic flights in both countries are seeing similar load factors.

The outlook for the remainder of the summer season depends partly on weather patterns, which have been variable so far. Parts of Australia have experienced above-average rainfall in December, which isn’t ideal for beach-focused tourism. New Zealand’s weather has been more favourable overall, with settled conditions in most tourist regions.

What emerges from the summer tourism data is a sector that’s performing reasonably well despite broader economic headwinds. People are still prioritising holidays and travel experiences, though they’re being more selective about where they go and what they spend. The trans-Tasman relationship remains central to both countries’ tourism success.